Skip to content
AI solutions · Forecasting & decisions

Forecasts embedded where the decision happens

A forecast that lives in a dashboard nobody opens is a research project. We build demand, pricing and risk models embedded in the tools where the decision is actually made — validated against your current method, honest about their error ranges, and retired without sentiment if they stop beating the baseline.

Decisions we model

Wherever a person currently decides from last year's numbers plus a hunch.

Demand forecasting

Sales, load and capacity predicted at the granularity you plan at — with uncertainty ranges, not single numbers.

Pricing & revenue

Price sensitivity and revenue impact modelled before you commit — scenario answers in minutes, not quarters.

Risk scoring

Credit, churn and fraud risk scored with explanations a reviewer — or a regulator — can follow.

Capacity & planning

Staffing, inventory and scheduling driven by forecast instead of last year plus a safety margin.

The baseline has to lose, fairly

Your current method — however informal — is the incumbent. The model deploys only if it beats it on your own history.

01

Name the decision and the baseline

What decision, made by whom, how often — and what the current method's error actually is. That's the number to beat.

02

Backtest before build

The model competes against the baseline on your historical data. If it can't win there, we tell you and stop.

03

Embed in the workflow

The forecast appears in the scheduling screen, the pricing tool, the planning sheet — where the decision is made, with confidence shown.

04

Monitor honestly

Error tracked continuously against actuals and against the baseline. Models drift; ours say so out loud.

What ships with every model

Evidence before deployment, honesty after it.

Model in production, in your workflowNot a separate dashboard — inside the tool where the decision is made
Backtest report vs. your baselineThe evidence, in writing, before you commit to deployment
Error ranges shown at point of useDecision-makers see confidence, not false precision
Retraining & drift pipelineRefreshed on schedule, alerted on degradation
Monthly review against the metricForecast error and business impact, side by side

Common questions

How accurate will the forecast be?

The backtest answers that with your data before you commit — accuracy claims made any earlier are marketing. What we promise up front is the method: beat your current approach on a fair historical test, or we recommend not deploying.

Our planners won't trust a black box.

They shouldn't. That's why the forecast ships with error ranges, driver explanations and its track record visible — and why planners can always override, with overrides logged and learned from.

How much historical data do we need?

Typically 2–3 years for seasonal patterns, but the honest answer comes from the feasibility sprint — sometimes external signals compensate for thin history, sometimes they don't.

What happens when the world shifts and the model breaks?

Drift monitoring catches it: error against actuals is tracked continuously, alerts fire when it degrades, and retraining is a pipeline, not a project. In genuinely unprecedented conditions the system says "low confidence" — which is itself useful information.

Case study · Energy trading · Dedicated team

A forecasting model the trading desk actually uses, daily

Embedded in the scheduling workflow and honest about its error ranges — which is exactly why it's still in use.

Read the case study →
−4pt
forecast error vs. prior method
daily
use by the trading desk

What's your current forecast error?

If you don't know, that's the first finding — the diagnosis session is free.